Koki Matsuda vs Ren Nakamura Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Is second serve performance a reliable indicator of match success? In the past 6 months, Koki Matsuda has won 44.11% of points on their second serve compared to Ren Nakamura's 39.62%, suggesting Matsuda's edge.
• Koki Matsuda also outperforms in returning opponents' second serves, with 44.44% won versus Nakamura's 39.60%.
• First serve return stats show Matsuda has a slight advantage, winning 27.68% of points compared to Nakamura's 22.28%.
• When under pressure, Matsuda saves 52.26% of breakpoints, while Nakamura saves only 43.40%, indicating Matsuda might handle critical situations better.
• Over the last year, Matsuda's match win rate stands at 71.19%, significantly higher than Nakamura's 39.29%.
• Surface type differences: Matsuda excels on indoor hard courts with a 76% win rate, while Nakamura's best performance is on grass at 76%.
• Considering recent competition, Matsuda faces generally lower-ranked opponents, averaging rank 401.51, while Nakamura's opponents average rank 202.11, suggesting Nakamura plays against tougher competition.
• If the match goes to a deciding set, Matsuda is favored with a 56% win record, whereas Nakamura hasn't won any deciding sets in the last 12 months.
• Matsuda converts breakpoints at a higher rate of 34.36% compared to Nakamura's 28.21%, which could prove decisive in critical junctures.

Editorial Prediction (November 16, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing the comprehensive statistics between Koki Matsuda and Ren Nakamura, several key differences suggest a probable outcome for their upcoming match. Matsuda's superior second serve performance and return game efficiency give him an edge in both serving and return scenarios.

Historically, Matsuda has demonstrated a stronger capacity to handle high-pressure situations, as evidenced by his robust breakpoint-saving abilities compared to Nakamura. This is further bolstered by Matsuda's higher win percentage in matches and decisive sets over the last year.

While Nakamura has faced higher-ranked competition, potentially skewing win/loss statistics, Matsuda's capabilities on his preferred surfaces and better conversion of breakpoints offer a marked advantage.

Considering these factors, Koki Matsuda emerges as a more likely winner in their upcoming match against Ren Nakamura.